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  •  2012-01-05 21:04:46   作者:sn   来源:   点击:0   评论:0
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  • 中国经济的问鼎之路

    中国经济彻底赶超美国指日可待

    Dec 31st 2011 | from the print edition
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    2011年春天,皮尤全球态度调查就“谁是全球经济领跑者”向全世界数千名民众展开调查,半数中国被调查者认为美国仍是世界第一,只有25%的中国人认为本国经济已赶超美国。而美国人也动摇了,43%的美国被调查者投票给中国,只有38%的人认为美国占上风。调查结果应该取决于其衡量标准,《经济学人》通过对21个指标(见全部数据)进行统计,结果发现,中国已有半数指标超越美国,并将在10年内实现全面赶超。

    在衡量经济能力时,绝对经济总量比人均数据更有说服力。早在十年前,中国的钢铁消耗量,手机拥有率和啤酒消耗量( 衡量经济优势的重要标准)等指标就已高于美国,此后又陆续在部分其他指标上赶超。2011年,中国出口量比美国高出30%,固定资产投资额高出约40%,是全球最大的制造国,这在一定程度上导致其燃耗比美国高出10%,温室气体排放高出近40%(尽管中国人均气体排放量只有美国的三分之一)。中国还是全世界年购车量最高的国家。

    在发明创新领域,这个创造了指南针,火药和造纸术的国度也在向美国发起挑战。统计表明,2011年中国的专利许可数量要高于美国,虽然有些专利含金量存疑,但在未来必将有所改进。世界经济论坛发布了“世界竞争力报告”,显示中国的数学科学教育水平在全球142个国家中位列第31位,遥遥领先屈居51位的美国。其外部金融影响力轻松秒杀美国,中国拥有两万亿美元的国外净资产,而美国背负着两万五千亿美元的债务。

    下表显示了我们对中国何时在其他领域赶超美国的预期。官方数据显示,目前中国的消费水平只有美国的五分之一(鉴于中国服务业数据覆盖率较低,这一数据的真实性存疑)。过去五年内的相对增长率表明,这一差距将不断缩小,并将在2023年追平。中国零售业加速发展,有望在2014年赶超美国,同年还将成为世界最大进口国,早在2000年,美国进口量还是中国的六倍,这一转变可谓是中国的一个华丽转身。

    至于衡量经济水平的首要标杆——国内生产总值(下文简称GDP),国际货币基金组织预测,如果基于购买力平价法来衡量,中国的GDP将在2016年超过美国,这也将证明相对贫穷国家的物价的确较低。但要真正实现超越美国,中国的GDP必须折合市场汇率,以美元计算方能作数。

    据粗略估计,2011年美国的GDP仍是中国的两倍,但与2000年的八倍相比以有所下降。为预测中国何时能赶上美国,《经济学人》更新了下列互动图表(见下图),您可以输入自己对中美GDP实际增长率、通胀率以及人民币对美元汇率的估计值。我们得到的最优数据是,在未来十年内,中国的GDP实际年增长率将为7.75%(相比前十年的10.5%有所下降),美国为2.5%。(GDP平减指数显示)中美通胀平均水平分别为4%和1.5%,人民币每年将增值3%。若然,中国经济将在2018年超越美国,这比我们在2010年12月的预期提早了一年,因为中国的GDP美元价值增长高出了2011年的预期。

    第二名才是大赢家

    但即使中国能够在2018年成为世界第一经济大国,美国仍将是世界第一富庶大国,因为其人均GDP仍是中国的四倍。但据胡润中国富豪榜创始人胡润估计,中国亿万富豪人数或许已经超越美国。最近的统计显示,中国亿万(美元)富豪有270位,但他表示,真实数据恐怕要翻一倍,因为很多中国人崇尚财不外露。而据福布斯财富榜调查显示,美国有400多位亿万富翁。

    在某些排行榜上,美国依旧遥遥领先中国。美国股市资本是中国的四倍,在按收益排序的世界500强企业中,美国企业数量是中国的两倍。最重要的是,虽然中国的国防开支正在快速增长,美国国防军备支出是中国的五倍,且根据目前增长势头来看,美国将保持领先优势至2025年。

    做世界第一经济大国的确好处不少,它能巩固国家军事优势,并在制定国际规则时获得更多发言权。历史表明,世界第一经济大国一直是主要贮备货币的发行者,故而与别国相比,美国能以最低的价格获得最多的贷款。但美国不该阻止中国的崛起,因为中国的快速发展对全球经济都有利,一个飞速发展的世界第二比一个停滞不前的天下第一更有意义。

    Economics focus

    How to get a date

    The year when the Chinese economy will truly eclipse America’s is in sight

    IN THE spring of 2011 the Pew Global Attitudes Survey asked thousands of people worldwide which country they thought was the leading economic power. Half of the Chinese polled reckoned that America remains number one, twice as many as said “China”. Americans are no longer sure: 43% of US respondents answered “China”; only 38% thought America was still the top dog. The answer depends on which measure you pick. An analysis of 21 different indicators chosen by The Economist (see the full set) finds that China has already overtaken America on over half of them and will be top on virtually all of them within a decade.

    Economic power is best gauged by looking at absolute size rather than per-person measures. On a few indicators, such as steel consumption, ownership of mobile phones and beer-guzzling (a crucial test of economic superiority), the milestone was reached as long as a decade ago. Several more have been passed since. In 2011 China exported about 30% more than the United States and spent some 40% more on fixed capital investment. China is the world’s biggest manufacturer, and partly as a result it burns around 10% more energy and emits almost 40% more greenhouse gases than America (although its emissions per person are only one-third as big). The Chinese also buy more new cars each year than anybody else.

    The country that invented the compass, gunpowder and printing is also challenging America in the innovation stakes. We estimate that in 2011 more patents were granted to residents in China than in America. The quality of some Chinese patents may be dubious but they will surely improve. The World Economic Forum’s “World Competitiveness Report” ranks China 31st out of 142 countries on the quality of its maths and science education, well ahead of America’s 51st place. China’s external financial clout also beats America’s hands down. It has total net foreign assets of $2 trillion; America has net debts of $2.5 trillion.

    The chart shows our predictions for when China will overtake America on several other measures. Official figures show that China’s consumer spending is currently only one-fifth of that in America (although that may be understated because of China’s poor statistical coverage of services). Based on relative growth rates over the past five years it will remain smaller until 2023. Retail sales are catching up much faster, and could exceed America’s by 2014. In that same year China also looks set to become the world’s biggest importer—a huge turnaround from 2000, when America’s imports were six times those of China.

     Find even more indicators and adjust the figures to make your own predictions using our interactive chart

    What about GDP, the most widely used measure of economic power? The IMF predicts that China’s GDP will surpass America’s in 2016 if measured on a purchasing-power parity (PPP) basis, which adjusts for the fact that prices are lower in poorer countries. But America will only really be eclipsed when China’s GDP outstrips it in dollar terms, converted at market-exchange rates.

    In 2011 America’s GDP was roughly twice as big as China’s, down from eight times bigger in 2000. To predict how quickly that gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive online chart (also here) which allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. Our best guess is that annual real GDP growth over the next decade averages 7.75% in China (down from 10.5% over the past decade) and 2.5% in America; that inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averages 4% and 1.5% respectively; and that the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. If so, then China will overtake America in 2018. That is a year earlier than our prediction in December 2010 because China’s GDP in dollar terms increased by more than expected in 2011.

    Second place is for winners

    Even if China became the world’s biggest economy by 2018, Americans would remain much richer, with a GDP per head four times that in China. But Rupert Hoogewerf, the founder of the annual Hurun Report on China’s richest citizens, reckons that it may already have more billionaires. His latest survey identified 270 dollar billionaires but the true total, he says, is probably double that because many Chinese are secretive about their wealth. According to the Forbes rich list, America has 400 billionaires or so.

    America still tops a few league tables by a wide margin. Its stockmarket capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s and it has more than twice as many firms in the Fortune global 500, which lists the world’s biggest companies by revenue. Last but not least, America spends five times as much on defence as China does, and even though China’s defence budget is expanding faster, on recent growth rates America will remain top gun until 2025.

    Being the biggest economy in the world does offer advantages. It helps to ensure military superiority and gives a country more say in fixing international rules. Historically, the biggest economy has become the issuer of the main reserve currency, which is why America has also been able to borrow more cheaply than it otherwise would. But it would be a mistake for American leaders to try to block China’s rise. China’s rapid growth benefits the whole global economy. It is better to be number two in a fast-growing world than top dog in a stagnant one.

     

    Daily chart

    The dating game

    Dec 27th 2011, 14:00 by The Economist online

    AMERICA'S GDP is still roughly twice as big as China’s (using market exchange rates). To predict when the gap might be closed, The Economist has updated its interactive chart below with the latest GDP numbers. This allows you to plug in your own assumptions about real GDP growth in China and America, inflation rates and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. Over the past ten years, real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a year in China and 1.6% in America; inflation (as measured by the GDP deflator) averaged 4.3% and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the yuan has risen by an annual average of just over 4%. Our best guess for the next decade is that annual GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2018. Alternatively, if China’s real growth rate slows to an average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) it would not become number one until 2021. What do you think?

     

    A broader analysis by The Economist finds that China has already overtaken America on well over half of 21 different indicators, including manufacturing output, exports and fixed investment. The chart below predicts when China will surpass America on the rest. By 2014, for example, it could be the world’s biggest importer and have the largest retail sales. America still tops a few league tables by a wider margin. Its stockmarket capitalisation is four times bigger than China’s, and it spends five times as much on defence. Even though China’s defence budget is growing faster, on recent growth rates America’s will remain larger until 2025.

    CLICK HERE FOR THE RELATED ECONOMICS FOCUS

    2011世界500强之1-100

    2011 2010 公司名称 营业收入 利润 国家
    排名 排名 (中英文) (百万美元) (百万美元)
    1 1 沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores) 421,849 16,389 美国
    2 2 荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司(Royal Dutch Shell) 378,152 20,127 荷兰
    3 3 埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil) 354,674 30,460 美国
    4 4 英国石油公司(BP) 308,928 -3,719 英国
    5 7 中国石油化工集团公司(Sinopec Group) 273,421.9 7,628.7 中国
    6 10 中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum) 240,192.4 14,366.9 中国
    7 8 国家电网公司(State Grid) 226,294 4,556.1 中国
    8 5 丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor) 221,760.2 4,765.7 日本
    9 6 日本邮政控股公司(Japan Post Holdings) 203,958.1 4,891.2 日本
    10 11 雪佛龙(Chevron) 196,337 19,024 美国
    11 14 道达尔公司(Total) 186,055 14,000.9 法国
    12 17 康菲石油公司(Conocophillips) 184,966 11,358 美国
    13 16 大众公司(Volkswagen) 168,041 9,052.7 德国
    14 9 安盛(AXA) 162,235.9 3,640.9 法国
    15 270 房利美(Fannie Mae) 153,825 -14,014 美国
    16 13 通用电气公司(General Electric) 151,628 11,644 美国
    17 12 荷兰国际集团(Ing Group) 147,052.2 3,678 荷兰
    18 . 嘉能可国际(Glencore International) 144,978 1,291 瑞士
    19 28 伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway) 136,185 12,967 美国
    20 38 通用汽车公司(General Motors) 135,592 6,172 美国
    21 15 美国银行(Bank Of America Corp.) 134,194 -2,238 美国
    22 32 三星电子(Samsung Electronics) 133,780.5 13,668.7 韩国
    23 24 埃尼石油公司(Eni) 131,756 8,367.9 意大利
    24 30 戴姆勒(Daimler) 129,480.6 5,957.4 德国
    25 23 福特汽车公司(Ford Motor) 128,954 6,561 美国
    26 18 法国巴黎银行(Bnp Paribas) 128,725.7 10,387.7 法国
    27 20 安联保险集团(Allianz) 127,378.7 6,692.5 德国
    28 26 惠普(Hewlett-Packard) 126,033 8,761 美国
    29 27 意昂集团(E.On) 125,063.5 7,752.1 德国
    30 21 美国电话电报公司(At&T) 124,629 19,864 美国
    31 31 日本电报电话公司(Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) 120,315.7 5,950.2 日本
    32 22 家乐福(Carrefour) 120,296.8 573.5 法国
    33 19 意大利忠利保险公司(Assicurazioni Generali) 120,233.5 2,254.1 意大利
    34 54 巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras) 120,052 19,184 巴西
    35 50 俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom) 118,656.8 31,894.5 俄罗斯
    36 25 摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.) 115,475 17,370 美国
    37 34 麦克森公司(Mckesson) 112,084 1,202 美国
    38 29 苏伊士集团(Gdf Suez) 111,887.8 6,113.7 法国
    39 33 花旗集团(Citigroup) 111,055 10,602 美国
    40 47 日立(Hitachi) 108,766.4 2,788.9 日本
    41 35 威瑞森电信(Verizon Communications) 106,565 2,549 美国
    42 44 雀巢公司(Nestlé) 105,266.7 32,843 瑞士
    43 36 法国农业信贷银行(Crédit Agricole) 105,003.3 1,672.8 法国
    44 41 美国国际集团(American International Group) 104,417 7,786 美国
    45 51 本田汽车(Honda Motor) 104,342.1 6,235.7 日本
    46 39 汇丰银行控股公司(Hsbc Holdings) 102,680 13,159 英国
    47 40 西门子(Siemens) 102,657.2 5,268 德国
    48 63 日产汽车(Nissan Motor) 102,430 3,727.1 日本
    49 64 墨西哥石油公司(Pemex) 101,506.4 -3,757.8 墨西哥
    50 65 松下(Panasonic) 101,491 864.2 日本
    51 37 西班牙国家银行(Banco Santander) 100,349.9 10,835.3 西班牙
    52 48 国际商业机器公司(International Business Machines) 99,870 14,833 美国
    53 43 卡地纳健康(Cardinal Health) 98,601.9 642.2 美国
    54 190 房地美(Freddie Mac) 98,368 -14,025 美国
    55 78 现代汽车(Hyundai Motor) 97,408.4 4,707.6 韩国
    56 60 意大利国家电力公司(Enel) 97,185 5,814.4 意大利
    57 45 Cvs Caremark公司(Cvs Caremark) 96,413 3,427 美国
    58 136 Jx控股公司(Jx Holdings) 95,964.2 3,639.7 日本
    59 42 英国劳埃德银行集团(Lloyds Banking Group) 95,681.9 -4,102.7 英国
    60 112 鸿海科技集团(Hon Hai Precision Industry) 95,190.5 2,450.4 中国
    61 58 特易购(Tesco) 94,185.2 4,104 英国
    62 61 联合健康集团(Unitedhealth Group) 94,155 4,634 美国
    63 46 美国富国银行(Wells Fargo) 93,249 12,362 美国
    64 53 英杰华集团(Aviva) 90,210.7 2,259.9 英国
    65 57 麦德龙(Metro) 89,080.6 1,125.8 德国
    66 56 委内瑞拉国家石油公司(Pdvsa) 88,361 4,313 委内瑞拉
    67 74 挪威国家石油公司(Statoil) 87,645.6 6,301.8 挪威
    68 52 法国电力公司(Électricité De France) 86,308.5 1,351 法国
    69 93 卢克石油公司(Lukoil) 86,078 9,006 俄罗斯
    70 84 瓦莱罗能源公司(Valero Energy) 86,034 324 美国
    71 81 巴斯夫公司(Basf) 84,597.3 6,035.6 德国
    72 62 法国兴业银行(Société Générale) 84,349.6 5,187.9 法国
    73 69 索尼(Sony) 83,844.7 -3,030.8 日本
    74 99 阿塞洛-米塔尔(Arcelormittal) 83,443 2,916 卢森堡
    75 59 德国电信(Deutsche Telekom) 82,674.2 2,245 德国
    76 70 克罗格(Kroger) 82,189.4 1,116.3 美国
    77 87 中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank Of China) 80,501.3 24,398.2 中国
    78 68 西班牙电信(Telefónica) 80,443.8 13,465.8 西班牙
    79 82 宝马(BMW) 80,099.4 4,262.1 德国
    80 66 宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble) 79,689 12,736 美国
    81 75 日本生命保险公司(Nippon Life Insurance) 78,571.4 2,630.7 日本
    82 104 Sk集团(Sk Holdings) 78,435.3 570 韩国
    83 . Exor集团(Exor Group) 78,123.3 181.5 意大利
    84 76 美源伯根公司(Amerisourcebergen) 77,954 636.7 美国
    85 79 好市多(Costco Wholesale) 77,946 1,303 美国
    86 107 马来西亚国家石油公司(Petronas) 76,875.9 17,479.3 马来西亚
    87 77 中国移动通信集团公司(China Mobile Communications) 76,673.3 9,733.1 中国
    88 73 慕尼黑再保险公司(Munich Re Group) 76,220.1 3,207.8 德国
    89 89 东芝(Toshiba) 74,705.5 1,609.4 日本
    90 94 标致(Peugeot) 74,250.6 1,501.9 法国
    91 72 保诚集团(Prudential) 73,597.7 2,210.4 英国
    92 80 沃达丰(Vodafone) 71,344 12,389.3 英国
    93 86 德国邮政(Deutsche Post) 71,120.9 3,365.5 德国
    94 114 雷普索尔-Ypf公司(Repsol Ypf) 70,456 6,215.7 西班牙
    95 137 中国中铁股份有限公司(China Railway Group) 69,973.3 1,106.3 中国
    96 49 德克夏银行集团(Dexia Group) 69,490.5 957.6 比利时
    97 71 法国bpce银行集团(Groupe Bpce) 69,297.1 4,821 法国
    98 125 印度石油公司(Indian Oil) 68,836.7 1,718.7 印度
    99 144 马拉松石油公司(Marathon Oil) 68,413 2,568 美国
    100 55 苏格兰皇家银行(Royal Bank Of Scotland) 68,087.8 -1,546.2 英国
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